As for temperature anomalies, from January to November 2024 the global average
temperature was 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 average: the highest value ever recorded for
this period, exceeding the record set in 2023 by 0.14°C.
In China, to give just one example, average temperatures in 2024 reached 10.92°C:
the warmest year since 1961. In Europe, beyond the by now well-known scorching summers
(summer 2024 was the hottest ever recorded, with August reaching an average surface temperature
of 16.82°C), the boreal autumn is also worth noting, with temperatures
above average, up 1.25°C compared with the historical period.
As a partial ‘excuse’ for our now clear inertia in the battle against climate change, there is
the fact that both 2023 and 2024 were marked by El Niño conditions, which
undoubtedly increased the heat of the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
But that the rise in greenhouse gas emissions was the dominant factor in this
striking increase is something only the prejudiced can still doubt. El Niño, scientists tell us,
existed before these last
two ‘terrible’ years of global warming too (at least 30 cases have been counted since the start of the 20th century).
The Met Office carried out an in-depth study, using recent observations and the twenty-year average
of global temperatures.
The result is that the global average temperature for 2025 will in all likelihood be between
1.29 and 1.53°C above pre-industrial temperatures.
Winter 2025 is expected to bring temperatures higher than the historical average, with an
estimated increase of 1-2°C. However, there will also be spells of intense cold, especially
in the first part of January.
Winter rainfall could exceed averages, but will be distributed
unevenly. In some regions, such as northern Europe, rain and
strong winds will increase.
Winter is also expected to bring more extreme weather events, such as winter
storms and late frosts, which could affect agriculture.
Spring will probably be marked by significant temperature swings, with late cold and
early heat. Positive temperature anomalies are expected in 60-70% of the north and over 80% of the south.
April could see significant rain, while a short spring
season is expected.
Summer is still hard to predict precisely, but it is reasonable to expect alternating
intense heatwaves and violent storms. Sea temperatures will remain above average,
favouring extreme events such as heatwaves and drought in some areas.
We will therefore reach the twelfth consecutive year in which temperatures exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.0
°C. The goal of staying within 1.5°C looks increasingly unlikely.
And this is a fact which, to use a word so dear to ‘climate sceptics’, lies beyond all
ideologies. Or does it?
