50 years on. Guterres: ‘We are on a highway to climate hell’.
Fifty years ago, a supercomputer predicted the extinction of humanity in the twenty-first century. The same was claimed, moreover, in the book Limits to Growth, promoted by the Club of Rome in 1972.
Fifty years ago, a supercomputer predicted the extinction of humanity in the twenty-first century. The same was claimed, moreover, in the book Limits to Growth, promoted by the Club of Rome in 1972. The report contained in the book is recognised as one of the main inspirations of the modern environmental movement. The key message is that economic and population growth could not continue at the same pace without serious environmental problems and social collapse in the 21st century.
Has the warning been taken seriously by the international community? In words, it would seem so. But in practice, all the more developed nations have continued over these decades to maintain a style of growth that is harmful to the environment. Upon its publication, the book sparked much controversy and received numerous criticisms, above all from those with an expansionist attitude in favour of industry and the use of fossil energy. The curious thing is that, after fifty years, the Club of Rome study has been reviewed and compared with the current situation and with up-to-date data.
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In 2020, an analysis by the economist and activist Gaya Herrington, published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology of Yale University, concluded that the 1972 study is essentially correct, since continued economic growth proves unsustainable in a ‘business as usual’ model. Herrington’s study found that current empirical data are substantially consistent with the projections made fifty years ago and show that, if no substantial changes are made in the consumption of resources, economic growth will decline rapidly, together with a substantial decline in the quality of human life. On the other hand, the appeal by United Nations Secretary-General Guterres at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh was clear: ‘We are on a highway to climate hell’.
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