Now let us turn to rainfall. We must expect an increase in intense rain, with all the risks that come with it.
It is a figure we have unfortunately heard repeated many times in recent years, but it is striking all the same: 91% of Italian municipalities are at risk of landslides and floods, and over 7 million people live in areas classed as ‘most hazardous’ (Legambiente, 2019).
The main cause of this situation is land consumption: another concept that, sadly, is by now familiar to us. Permeable soils (meadows, woods, fields) have been turned into impermeable surfaces covered in concrete, reducing the drainage capacity of river basins.
It should also be added that geo-hydrological risk is greater in areas of greater ‘social hardship’, which show higher land consumption than wealthier areas. This can multiply the catastrophic effects of adverse events: it is obvious that in more ‘disadvantaged’ areas climate risk will have a more economically devastating impact than in other parts of the country.
Fertile Italy, less and less fertile
With rising temperatures and ever greater instability in rainfall, drought will spread across many areas of the country.
It is foreseeable that, between now and 2100, many crops will respond with an accelerated growth cycle. This is only apparently positive: by limiting the time available for biomass accumulation, it will lead to reduced yields.
The first problem for Italian agriculture of the future, as we have said, will be water shortage, particularly in the southern regions.
Lower rainfall and more frequent dry spells, in summer and beyond, will reduce the water available for irrigation. Productive sectors will compete with one another, and decisions will have to be made on how much water goes to farmers, how much to industry and how much to households.
With less water, crops will yield less, even considerably so. For maize, for example, one of our main crops, a possible yield loss of 20% has been estimated.
Climate change will also alter the geography of typical products. In the Italy of 2100, growing vines and olives could become impossible, or far less productive, in Calabria. Conversely, the Alps could have ideal climates for these crops.
The most worrying variable, however, will be the instability of the climate in 2100. Extreme weather events, such as heavy rain, hailstorms, out-of-season frosts, drought or heatwaves, will destroy or wipe out many harvests.
If the woods burn
Climatologists use an effective image: with climate change our forests will ‘move’.
This means that many areas will become too hot or too arid to host certain woodland species, and many types of trees will migrate from some areas to others with a more favourable climate. The Apennines will be affected above all, while the Alps will become genuine ‘refuge areas’ for the migration of many forest species.
So the Italian forests of 2100 could be completely different in composition from those of today. The maritime pine is at risk of disappearing, and with it the pine woods; the silver fir, the Scots pine and many other species will vanish from the Apennine woods and retreat to the highest altitudes of the Alps.
The Mediterranean oaks – holm oak, downy oak, Turkey oak – will instead endure and gain ever more ground, thanks to their resistance to water shortage.
The number one enemy of Italian forests will, needless to say, be fire. Rising temperatures and drought will lead to a corresponding increase in forest fires. The depopulation of rural areas will add to these destructive phenomena. Fields that are abandoned will in time become woodland: abandoned, however, and managed by no one.
If no one clears the undergrowth of branches and dead wood, thins the trees to reduce their density or grazes animals in the woods, the consequence will be precisely an increase in fires and in their extent.
We too will grow used to ‘megafires’, as the Americans call them: fires affecting very large areas, capable of reaching inhabited villages, with enormous risks for the population.
Sources and further reading:
ISPRA, European Court of Auditors, SISEF (2024 UPDATE)
