Let us look at some figures.
In the 2023-2024 growing season, global cocoa production fell by 13.1%.
For the following season, the reduction is expected to be around 11%.
Consequently, the market recorded a supply deficit of 478,000 tonnes in the 2023-2024 season, the largest in the last six years.
In addition, end-of-season cocoa stocks fell by 26.8%.
The economic impact has been significant on the main producing regions, whose economies were already not doing well before.
Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for more than 70% of world production, have been particularly hard hit by adverse weather conditions and diseases (such as cocoa swollen shoot virus disease, CSSVD). Yields have fallen by 25-30% in Ivory Coast.
Cocoa prices have reached record levels: in recent years there has been an increase of 400%. This has also had a considerable impact on finance – and on speculation: in 2024, cocoa futures rose by about 180%.
It is true that Ghana has, with a certain optimism, forecast a recovery in production for the 2024/2025 season, speaking of an expectation of more than 800,000 tonnes.
With demand for cocoa rising, especially in emerging markets, this continuing tension between demand and supply is bound to keep prices high, with new peaks in 2025. This, in all likelihood, will not be good for the market in the medium term, nor for the producing countries.
What can be done, then, to face what can now be considered ‘the cocoa crisis’?
According to agri-food experts, some countermeasures are needed immediately. Such as developing so-called ‘Precision Agriculture’. That is, the use of those platforms based on artificial intelligence that are already able to monitor and manage crops, prevent diseases and optimise resources.
The ‘blockchain’ technology must then be improved: literally a ‘chain of blocks’, that is, a decentralised digital ledger that makes it possible to store and manage transactions securely and transparently, so as to guarantee transparency and traceability along the entire supply chain.
Closely linked to this innovation is the issue of the environmental sustainability of cultivation.
Cocoa plantations are in fact anything but ecologically neutral or virtuous.
They often replace tropical forests, contributing to deforestation as well as to the loss of habitat for wildlife.
If we add that chocolate production requires a great deal of water and energy, with consequent greenhouse gas emissions and water pollution, and that in many cases it is associated with unsustainable farming practices such as the massive use of pesticides and chemical fertilisers, the picture of a possible vicious circle of causes and effects is clear.
The key words therefore seem to be, once again, organic farming and agroforestry: that is, an agricultural system that deliberately combines trees and shrubs with crops and, in some cases, livestock, in order to optimise the use of available resources and improve productivity and sustainability.
To complete the picture of measures, more and more independent certifications and standards are needed. As is a decisive increase in farmer training. In the case of cocoa we already have programmes such as ‘Cocoa Life’ and ‘Forever Chocolate’, which promote farmer training to improve yields and reduce deforestation, while encouraging decent working conditions.
If we do not take action on all this, our grandchildren might one day ask us: “Grandpa, what was Nutella?” And it would be very sad to have to explain it to them.
