Belpaese unliveable: what Italy’s climate will be like in 2100 – Ep. 1

August 2021. NASA’s estimates

The Sea Level Change Portal is a portal created by NASA, the American space agency, to study sea level rise using information and measurements from satellites, aircraft missions and ships, and supercomputer simulations.

In August 2021, the portal published a map of the seas outlining scenarios up to 2100. The forecast was a rise of more than half a metre, with even higher values if greenhouse gas emissions were to increase further compared with the current situation.
The estimate was based on IPCC data (the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change), with possible variations depending on the city, on any changes to the economic model, and on whether or not measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are adopted.
Any scenario, however, foresaw a rise in sea level: more precisely, from a minimum of about 30 centimetres to a maximum of 80 by 2100.

The case of Venice

Turning to Italy, NASA’s map indicated a sea level rise in Venice by 2100 of 0.41 metres in the best case and 0.87 in the worst. These are striking figures, considering the consequences of a rise of this magnitude.
By 2150 the situation for the ‘most beautiful city in the world’ could get much worse, with forecasts ranging from 0.61 metres to as much as 1.94 metres higher, depending on which scenario occurs.

Genoa, Cagliari, Palermo

The outlook is certainly no better for another seaside city, Genoa: the projected sea level rise by 2100 could range from 0.34 to 0.80 metres, and by 2150 from 0.50 to 1.83 metres.
In Palermo the sea could rise from 0.32 to 0.82 metres by 2100, and from 0.47 to 1.89 metres by 2150.

In Cagliari the rise would be from 0.39 to 0.88 metres by 2100, and from 0.58 to 1.98 metres by 2150.

According to experts, the prospect of rising seas is particularly significant for the Mediterranean itself.
As CNR climatologist Marina Baldi pointed out, “the Mediterranean is an area where climate change and sea level rise are more pronounced and rapid than in other areas. The global parameters for ice melt and sea level rise have grown faster than in the past, and if we carry on like this it will proceed even faster.”