The global push for clean hydrogen has stalled, the IEA warns. It is being held back mainly by rising costs and delayed political support from governments.
It seems a paradox, considering that, as the IEA report says, announcements of new projects for low-emission hydrogen are increasing almost by the day. The technology is advancing rapidly, but developers are waiting for government support before investing. Support that is slow to arrive.
The IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol, recalled that “in recent years the world has seen incredible momentum behind low-emission hydrogen projects. But a difficult economic environment is testing the resolve of hydrogen developers and policymakers to see planned projects through”.
Let us look at some figures. Global demand for hydrogen rose to 95 million tonnes in 2022: growth that took place in traditional industrial sectors and was met almost entirely with fossil fuels.
Hydrogen can instead be produced more cleanly by water electrolysis, that is, by splitting H2O molecules using electricity from renewable sources (wind turbines, solar panels); or by capturing the carbon dioxide itself (so-called blue hydrogen: a technology that, it must be said, still has many problems).
The IEA report, which considers both methods low-emission, found that annual production could reach 38 million tonnes in 2030 if all the announced projects were carried out. To be precise, 27 million tonnes would come from electrolysis and 10 million tonnes from carbon capture.
As has been said, however, nearly all the projects are still on paper. So far, companies have taken a final investment decision for only 4% of them.
Who is responsible? As already said, the report divides the blame equally, or nearly so, between the economic situation and the action, or rather the inaction, of governments, which have made some efforts to increase the supply of hydrogen but have been too slow in encouraging demand for it.
According to the report, while targets for hydrogen production amount to 35 million tonnes, those for creating demand amount to only 14 million tonnes.
“The growth of the hydrogen market is characterised by the specific challenge of increasing supply, demand and infrastructure at the same time,” the authors of the report explain. “Our research shows that current policies lead to short-term scarcity and long-term uncertainty for green hydrogen”.
In short, we need to throw our hearts over the obstacle and make a great leap forward. The report cites as an example the production of combat aircraft in the United States during the Second World War, or (this second one is perhaps better chosen) the boom in the high-speed rail network in China.
Once again, the message is that we can no longer put off until tomorrow what must be done today.
“This is the critical decade for reducing the cost of low-emission hydrogen,” said Timur Gül, the IEA’s head of energy technologies.
